From The Washington Post)
June 24
The Brexit referendum transcends the economy
Like everybody else in London, I woke up this
morning, after not much sleep,
to graphic depictions of the
pound crashing, the stock exchange collapsing and markets all over
the world in turmoil. I have no doubt that tomorrow , or the next day,
the story will be different. Traders will take a step back and notice
that nothing, actually, has happened yet. There will be cheap assets to
pick up. Markets will stabilize.
The true impact of Brexit, on Britain and on Europe, will not be
visible for many years. In a certain sense, it will not be visible at
all, for the real damage will be done by the things that will now not
happen. The slow agony of the divorce proceedings will take up precious
political time and energy in London and other European capitals, so
Europe’s leaders will not unite to cope with other crises. The United
Kingdom will turn further in on itself, so British energy and talent
will not be dedicated to pushing back against the Islamic State,
resettling migrants, resisting Russia. The situation of the U.K. will be
unstable and uncertain for a long time, so investments will not take
place. Money will not be spent. Opportunities will not be created.
It is not an exaggeration to say that there are tens of thousands of
decisions to be made in the U.K., on legal issues; on joint foreign
policy, security and diplomacy; and, if Britain leaves the European
single market altogether, on tariffs and trade.
Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay in Europe, and so the question
of Scottish independence necessarily returns. Nicola Sturgeon,
Scotland’s first minister, has called the referendum result
“democratically unacceptable” for Scots, and one sees her point.
Presidential candidate Donald Trump
said there is a parallel between the U.K.'s vote to leave the
European Union and his bid for the presidency to date. Trump was
speaking during a news conference at his Scottish golf resort
June 24. (Reuters)
Northern Ireland voted to stay in Europe, and so the unification of
northern and southern Ireland becomes a live issue again. Minutes after
the referendum result was announced, Sinn Fein, the Irish nationalist
party,
declared that “this British Government has forfeited any mandate to
represent the economic or political interests of people in Northern
Ireland,” and so it has. It can be only a matter of time before a
movement calling for a Northern Irish referendum takes off.
Other European countries may now face political instability as well.
The British vote has, in just a few hours, energized the supporters of
anti-European — and in some cases anti-democratic — parties elsewhere in
Europe. Not just in the smaller European nations but also in big
countries — France, the Netherlands, Italy and possibly even Germany —
the political scene may shift dramatically, particularly given the
likelihood of slower economic growth. Once again, much of the damage
will be invisible, taking the form of things that will not happen. The
Dutch prime minister, the German chancellor or the French president,
consumed with fighting off new political challenges at home, will not
have time to think creatively about their own economies or Europe’s
institutional structures, let alone the outside world.
Finally, I do realize that it’s facile to talk about the impact on a
U.S. election that is still many months away, that it’s too simple to
say “first Brexit, then Donald Trump.” But there is a way in which this
election has to be seen, at the very least, as a possible harbinger of
the future. This referendum campaign,
as I wrote a few days ago, was not fought on the issues that are
normally central to British elections. Identity politics trumped
economics; arguments about “independence” and “sovereignty” defeated
arguments about British influence and importance. The advice of
once-trusted institutions was ignored. Elected leaders were swept aside.
If that kind of transformation can take place in the U.K., then it can
happen in the United States, too. We have been warned.
“It’s the economy, stupid.” Since
Bill Clinton’s campaign coined that phrase nearly a
quarter-century ago, it has become a kind of mantra for
Western politicians. I’ve seen it translated into several
languages, used by politicians on the right and the left,
deployed on campaigns and put into the headlines of articles.
It has also helped reinforce, across Europe and North
America, a form of politics that might ironically be
described as Marxist, because it mirrors Marx’s belief that
“base determines superstructure,” that the economy molds
everything else. In election after election, candidates have
argued over who is best-positioned to create more wealth and
greater prosperity. British elections have been fought over
tax percentage points, German elections over labor mobility.
Each contest was made possible by the absence of more
existential issues — wars, rebellions, breakdowns in law and
order — and by the assumption that most voters agreed, more
or less, on the nature of the state.
No more. With the British referendum on European Union
membership scheduled for Thursday, a whole tradition of
polite argument over taxes and spending has come to a
crashing end. This angry and emotional campaign also started
out, like most British elections, as an argument about
economics. But it slowly became clear that the Remain
campaign had all the best arguments and all the best
economists. And so
the Leave campaign, and the newspapers that support it,
shifted focus to the threat of immigration, the loss of
sovereignty and the preservation of Englishness in a
dangerous world.
Leave campaigners invented a
mythical threat from Turkish immigrants, never mind that
Turkey is not in the E.U. and is unlikely to join. They
invented a mythical threat to the country’s National Health
Service, never mind that many NHS nurses and doctors come
from continental Europe. Last week, the leader of the U.K.
Independence Party, Nigel Farage, unveiled a poster that
featured a threatening crowd of distinctly
non-European-looking “migrants” and the slogan “Breaking
Point,” never mind that Britain has taken few migrants
in the past year, and that it is not part of the Schengen
Agreement, which created open borders within Europe. All of
these messages are about identity, not reality: We English
are disappearing; we English are being engulfed by outsiders;
we need to “Take Back Control,” as the Leave campaign slogan
has it; we need to fight back against foreigners/regulations/globalization/modernity
or whatever you personally find threatening
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